Table 2 Probability of ESBL-EC transmission over one year in the household
Control strategy | Household compositiona | Probability of ESBL-EC transmission according to the profile of initial carrier (%) [95% CI] | Reduction from the base case (%) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
woman | man | child | baby | woman | man | child | baby | ||
Base case (A) | b0c0 | 5.3 [5.0–5.6] | 6.6 [6.3–6.9] | – | – | – | – | – | – |
b0c1 | 21.4 [21.0–21.9] | 20.4 [20.0–20.9] | 31.2 [30.6–31.7] | – | – | – | – | – | |
b1c0 | 51.6 [51.1–52.2] | 45.4 [44.8–46.0] | – | 52.8 [52.2–53.4] | – | – | – | – | |
b1c1 | 65.8 [65.2–66.3] | 61.4 [60.9–62] | 67.8 [67.36–68.4] | 68.8 [68.3–69.3] | – | – | – | – | |
HH improvement by 50% (B) | (B-A)/A | ||||||||
b0c0 | 2.8 [2.6–3.0] | 4.3 [4.0–4.5] | – | – | −47.2 | −34.8 | – | – | |
b0c1 | 10.2[9.8–10.5] | 12.2 [11.8–12.6] | 20.8 [20.3–21.2] | – | −52.3 | − 40.2 | − 33.3 | – | |
b1c0 | 24.5 [24.0–25.0] | 26.6 [26.1–27.1] | – | 20.1 [19.7–20.6] | − 52.5 | − 41.4 | – | −61.9 | |
b1c1 | 34.5 [34.0–35.1] | 38.2 [37.7–38.8] | 44.2[43.6–44.8] | 28.2 [27.7–28.7] | −47.6 | −37.8 | −34.8 | −59.0 | |
Reduction of antibiotic use (C) | (C-A)/A | ||||||||
b0c0 | 5.0 [4.7–5.2] | 6.3 [6.0–6.5] | – | – | −5.7 | −4.5 | – | – | |
b0c1 | 20.9 [20.5–21.4] | 19.9 [19.4–20.4] | 30.2 [29.7–30.7] | – | −2.3 | −2.5 | −3.2 | – | |
b1c0 | 50.2 [49.7–50.8] | 43.8 [43.3–44.4] | – | 51.3 [50.7–51.8] | −2.7 | −3.5 | – | − 2.8 | |
b1c1 | 63.9 [63.3–64.4] | 59.0 [58.4–59.5] | 65.9 [65.4–66.4] | 67.0 [66.5–67.5] | −2.9 | −3.9 | −2.8 | − 2.6 | |